To jump or not… what are typical equity valuation multiples after 3-5-7 years?

I got an offer from a fintech startup to come on board as their most senior specialist, 3 founders, employee number low single digit offer. Successful series A funding, several millions in the bank, ready to build for quite a while, very attractive business idea and strong founders team.

If I jump, I would have to drop my substantial cash bonus income for quite a few years. Base comp is much lower than my current job, so on the comp side, it is all about the equity valuation in the future at next financing rounds or an exit event.

By what multiple do successful fintech startups multiple their initial post-series A valuation 3 or 5 or 7 years down the road?  Any rules of thumb or pointers to startup stats websites or articles highly appreciated.


  • One successful fintech startup may have 30x the valuation of another successful fintech startup. So looking at the median or average multiple won’t help you at all.

    That said, I recommend going through this list:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1akR9F_JfVEvOleXn_mUB9hKmmtm5-1V8iQmhAWTqTc8/edit

    For each startup (or for a sample) look up what they raised as Series A and Series B and how much time they had between rounds. Try to make an assessment of the percentage of startups in that list that have a better business model and founding team than your startup.

    You’ll probably conclude that joining the startup doesn’t make any sense financially (especially when you calculate your risk-adjusted return as opposed to the expected value) but startups are always an adventure so it’s alright to throw caution to the wind.

  • The rule of thumb is a growth of 5% each year. That includes 1 company growing with factor 50 and many others collapsing. If the company was already quite successful in the past, that does not guarantee a steady growth.

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